Air Force Responds to GPS Outage Concerns

On the one hand it reaffirms what I already expected. On the other hand - a Twitter forum? I guess it works, but still somehow that bothers me.

Sounds like a pitch for funding.

It won't fail. The only thing that might be cut back is civilian use if anything... the military certainly won't let there own devices and gps uses ever be compromised. These doom reports about it failing by 2010 are just hype.

Jim, the GAO report shouldn't be minimized. From your seed:

The GAO report predicated only an 80 percent likelihood the Air Force would be able to maintain the full 24-satellite constellation over a period between 2010 and 2014. Going below 24 satellites could result in lower GPS performance, GAO said.

The danger of a GPS outage, though small, exists if the Air Force is unable to improve its satellite replacement program. Currently years behind, Space Command says it has plans to launch enough satellites to keep the constellation above the 24-satellite threshold.

Here is the GAO Report (the primary source; emphasis&spacing added):

It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new satellites in time to maintain current GPS service without interruption. If not, some military operations and some civilian users could be adversely affected.

(1) In recent years, the Air Force has struggled to successfully build GPS satellites within cost and schedule goals; it encountered significant technical problems that still threaten its delivery schedule; and it struggled with a different contractor. As a result, the current IIF satellite program has overrun its original cost estimate by about $870 million and the launch of its first satellite has been delayed to November 2009--almost 3 years late.

(2) Further, while the Air Force is structuring the new GPS IIIA program to prevent mistakes made on the IIF program, the Air Force is aiming to deploy the next generation of GPS satellites 3 years faster than the IIF satellites. GAO's analysis found that this schedule is optimistic, given the program's late start, past trends in space acquisitions, and challenges facing the new contractor. Of particular concern is leadership for GPS acquisition, as GAO and other studies have found the lack of a single point of authority for space programs and frequent turnover in program managers have hampered requirements setting, funding stability, and resource allocation.

(3) If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals for development of GPS IIIA satellites, there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to. Such a gap in capability could have wide-ranging impacts on all GPS users, though there are measures the Air Force and others can take to plan for and minimize these impacts.