Visit Jim Dent's column >>

JIM DENT

The Commoners Guide to the Galaxy
Add To Watchlist
Articles Posted: 98; Links Seeded: 726
Member Since: 3/2006Last Seen: 11/06/2009

Gallup Daily: Obama-Biden Ticket Leads by 6 Points

advertisement

As the recent trend shows, Obama did not gain any additional support in the poll since his generally well-reviewed acceptance speech on Thursday night. However, the Aug. 28-30 field period also includes two days of interviewing since the Friday morning announcement by McCain that he has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to join him on the Republican ticket. Thus, it is unclear whether the full positive impact on national voters of the Democratic convention or Obama's speech would have been greater if not for the Palin announcement.

Published to:

What's this?
Who's leading the conversation?
This visualization below allows you to see the impact that each user has on the current conversation. The top row contains the group of users who have had the most impact, the 2nd row the group of users who have had the 2nd most impact (et cetera). Users with similar impact are grouped together, and the average score of the group is shown to the left of the group. The author of the article is also shown on the left, in their corresponding group. Each user's score is based on the number of comments the user has made plus the number of votes their comments have received. The scores are calculated relative one another, so while their absolute value is not particularly important, their relative difference does indicate a larger difference in impact on the conversation.
17
4.3
{"commentId":2673985,"authorDomain":"jimdent"}

Considering the Palin announcement, that's a pretty good convention bounce.

{"commentId":2673985,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"jimdent"}
  • 10 votes
Reply#1 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:34 PM EDT
{"commentId":2674177,"authorDomain":"niafabo"}

Most definately. She practically stole all of the news coverage when the networks should have been talking about Obama's speech. They were ahead by 8 points prior to her announcement and Obama's speech though. Now if the republicans only would not try to make the hurricane into a big campaign ad.

{"commentId":2674177,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"niafabo"}
  • 8 votes
#1.1 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:52 PM EDT
{"commentId":2674826,"authorDomain":"rdonaldsnyder"}

Good Bounce. Of course the GOP said before the convention that the Democrats should see at least a 12 point bounce of it wouldn't be a successful one. More of their straw-man politics.

{"commentId":2674826,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"rdonaldsnyder"}
  • 3 votes
#1.2 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:00 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675768,"authorDomain":"comsen"}

This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. Polls of likely voters tend to give McCain a higher percentage.

{"commentId":2675768,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"comsen"}
  • 2 votes
#1.3 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:35 PM EDT
{"commentId":2676049,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

The hurricane won't make much of an ad for Republicans. The National Guard has been stripped for the war in Iraq, and that measly $2 billion dollars they provided to improve the levees and sea walls was not enough. Katrina caused hundreds of billions in damage, and if the levees fail this time, you have only one place to go for the blame. That would be the top dog.

A lot of folks say it won't be Bush's fault if the city floods again. But let's imagine the response to Katrina (and the aftermath of rebuilding) if this country had a leader who cared about the people of New Orleans.

I posted up a fairly controversial article on this subject, but with a disclaimer. I said if the levees held tomorrow...I would delete it.

To try to stay on the subject, a six-point lead is also an eight-point turnaround since about a week ago. Not bad, really.

{"commentId":2676049,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
  • 6 votes
#1.4 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 12:02 AM EDT
{"commentId":2676135,"authorDomain":"jimdent"}
This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters.

Exactly. Registered voters tend to be a more reliable indicator... as they are more likely to vote. Likely voter just means that when asked if they plan to vote, they said yes (the road to hell is paved with good intentions...), they might not even be registered, but they "plan to."

Polls of likely voters tend to give McCain a higher percentage.

Too bad they aren't "registered" voters... McCain might actually have a chance. ;)

{"commentId":2676135,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"jimdent"}
  • 6 votes
#1.5 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 12:11 AM EDT
{"commentId":2677918,"authorDomain":"a0ted"}

. Katrina caused hundreds of billions in damage, and if the levees fail this time, you have only one place to go for the blame. That would be the top dog.

Mary Landrieu?

{"commentId":2677918,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"a0ted"}
  • 1 vote
#1.6 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 6:56 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2674730,"authorDomain":"lpwillham"}

I think probably Tuesday or Wednesday we may have a more accurate picture of where things stand. My 'guess' is that its back to even. If by late week, next weekend McCain-Palin gets a "bounce" and pulls ahead I think the critical polls to look at are PA,OH,IN and Michigan.

If McCain-Palin pull ahead in PA ans OH, Obama is in serious trouble as it means Palin has connected with "bitter/clinging" democrats.

Another key indicator might be in some of the western states Obama has his eye on, if there is slippage there as well, the debates 'might' be the only chance Obama has.

If it appears the Evangelical base is "really energized" another problem

He also has the additional problem of Rezko being sentenced just 10 days before the general election.

Remember Bush beat Kerry with only 46 percent of the woman vote.

In my opinion at some point Obama has to 'come clean' with his supporters and say "hey people there will be no landslide, this thing will be "very close".

There are too many of his supporters who think this is a cakewalk and will be a landslide. They aren't taking Palin seriously and that could be a mistake. If she really connects with middle class America Obama could lose this by more than a few points.

{"commentId":2674730,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"lpwillham"}
  • 4 votes
Reply#2 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:52 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675047,"authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}

well atleast you cahange the comment up a small bit as you repost it everywhere

in my opinion at some point Obama has to 'come clean' with his supporters and say "hey people there will be no landslide, this thing will be "very close".

come clean? wth the hell you going off about this time.. what the hell does obama have to come clean about? and who cares if it is close.. he will win.
all the electorial map polls suggest otherwise.
but iI dont care if it is "close"
Like bush says.. even if obama gets less than 50% of the vote.. it is a clear mandate for change.. and he will have untold mountians of poltical capital to spend.

{"commentId":2675047,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
  • 5 votes
#2.1 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:24 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675156,"authorDomain":"lpwillham"}

You just keep believing that Joules, Obama needs more people like you.

{"commentId":2675156,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"lpwillham"}
  • 1 vote
#2.2 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:35 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675341,"authorDomain":"transfer"}

There are too many of his supporters who think this is a cakewalk and will be a landslide.

I'm sure there's some poeple out there talking landslide but I really don't think anyone expects a cakewalk for either side as we are in "new" territory with the demographic change.

However, I think the polls are misleading, but that's just my hunch.

{"commentId":2675341,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"transfer"}
  • 4 votes
#2.3 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:52 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675474,"authorDomain":"lpwillham"}

The one thing that hasnt changed is well the polls havent changed much. However after both conventions there should be some movement one way or another. There are unknowns now that we havent had to deal with.

Will white america vote for an african american?

Will men vote for a woman ?

My opinion is that we really wont know until the morning after the election. The exit polls and primary polling were highly inaccurate. What peopl will do in teh privacy of a voting booth this year could lead to a lopsided victory for one candidate or the other.

But I am beginning to think the debates may be somewhat more critical than anyone initially thought.

{"commentId":2675474,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"lpwillham"}
  • 3 votes
#2.4 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:04 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2674786,"authorDomain":"mrmajek"}

It's the task of the Obama campaign to not leave the Republicans any room for what might happen with this storm. They are jumping through hoops to show that they are prepared NOW, but the last time McCain was cutting cake with Bush. Regardless of how he acts now, that is how he acted then, and that is his record. Hindsight and "getting it right now" is how they have gotten away with trying to mask their colossal ineptness and severe level of disconnection from REAL AMERICA. Time to start cramming that down people's throats like they cram their lies...repeat it enough, it will stick.

{"commentId":2674786,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"mrmajek"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#3 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:57 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675059,"authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}

I think that's why the mccain suppotters here ont he vine.. post the same comment in 50 threads.. rehash the same commetn tomorrow and post it in 50 threads
rehash and repeat
rehash and repeat
rehash and repeat
that's the lock step gop

{"commentId":2675059,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
  • 6 votes
#3.1 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:26 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675091,"authorDomain":"jimdent"}

You forgot... rinse... and repeat. ;)

{"commentId":2675091,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"jimdent"}
  • 5 votes
#3.2 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:29 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675780,"authorDomain":"tj"}

To be fair on the hurricane, everyone is trying harder working longer and cooperating with each other like never before.

This is true from the Parish Sheriff to Mayor Nagin to Gov Jindal to President Bush. TX sent 6 C-130s to evacuate people, Amtrak loaded two full length passenger trains, Greyhound dispatched dozens of buses it has been a great effort. I'm sure we will see much more in the terrible aftermath.

The only criticism is that it took Katrina to get people to evacuate quickly, work together, and make every effort that Americans deserve from each other.

{"commentId":2675780,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"tj"}
  • 3 votes
#3.3 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:37 PM EDT
{"commentId":2676124,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

But Jedi....this is all well and good, but you are forgetting a key issue here.

If Bush and company would have addressed the biggest non-wartime disaster in US history correctly, (by putting forth max effort to ensure no more flooding), then no one would have to leave, or at least not two million people.

This is what the report should have sounded like:

'We expect some damage from high winds in the local area, but no flooding....'

Lots of cities have been hit by hurricanes. Usually they rebuild the wind damage within a few weeks or months.

{"commentId":2676124,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
  • 5 votes
#3.4 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 12:10 AM EDT
{"commentId":2677924,"authorDomain":"a0ted"}

Governor Blanco is at home, operation evacuation/support/water/food/Red Cross going like a Swiss clock, on time by Governor Jindal.

{"commentId":2677924,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"a0ted"}
  • 1 vote
#3.5 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 6:58 AM EDT
{"commentId":2678410,"authorDomain":"tj"}
But Jedi....this is all well and good, but you are forgetting a key issue here.

Robert, as a Gulf Coast resident and Coast Guard veteran I have hashed and rehashed the spin that Bush destroyed New Orleans. The greatest loss was loss of life and that was a complete local failure to convey urgency and get people to evacuate. More than 22,000 people were rescued by the Coast Guard in the days immediately after landfall.

Having been through many hurricanes in many states and knowing very well how late Gov. Blanco was to declare a state of emergency and how Big and Easy Mayor Nagin was about taking any efforts to motivate his citizens to leave, you can see an unbelievably good contrast by todays efforts. Compounding the problem was the diversion of millions $$$ of levy funds for needs that were deemed more urgent for LA than a hurricane worthy levy system. Now with two major hurricanes LA will not divert the "extra" cash for other projects ever again.

I'll leave my comments at this, my opinions are based on a great deal of experience and your comments really miss the mark.

{"commentId":2678410,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"tj"}
  • 1 vote
#3.6 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 9:12 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2675104,"authorDomain":"lpwillham"}

Interesting Rasmussen poll out today shows NO Obama bounce! He is ahead the same 3 points he was a week ago. McCains favorable is way up since Pailin. and he is up 10 points with unaffiliated voters,

Palin's fevorable is higher than Biden's favorable.

Hmmm looks like McCain may have made this interesting!

{"commentId":2675104,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"lpwillham"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#4 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:30 PM EDT
{"commentId":2675930,"authorDomain":"rdonaldsnyder"}

Rasmussen is the polling wing of the GOP just like FOX is their TV propaganda outlet and the Washington Times is their version of Pravda. None of them have a shred of credibility.

{"commentId":2675930,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"rdonaldsnyder"}
  • 2 votes
#4.1 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:51 PM EDT
{"commentId":2676138,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

R Donald is right. And by the way, since I'm a book editor and all, I just HAD to point out something.

It's spelled McGovern. Big 'g' there. Newsvine would probably let you correct that, since it doesn't involve an actual name change.

I have to ask something else. This username of yours, I assume it means you DON'T want another McGovern repeat, right? I mean, we all know he got swept, etc. in 1972.

Okay...this also assumes you are rooting for the Democrats to win?

If so, why do you continually post up anti-Democratic stuff? That's your right, but with the username you selected, it's sort of confusing. And what will you do after November 4? Once the election is over, no matter who wins, that username will be useless.

{"commentId":2676138,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
  • 8 votes
#4.2 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 12:12 AM EDT
{"commentId":2676267,"authorDomain":"rdonaldsnyder"}

I'll admit his username has me a bit confused too. Perhaps he/she means it as a backhanded slap at the Democratic party but expresses it poorly? I was too young to vote in 1972 when McGovern ran (16 years old), but gladly spent part of my more idealistic youth stuffing envelopes and handing out fliers from his Battle Creek MI headquarters. I think many people on the right use him and his name in derision without really knowing anything about him.

{"commentId":2676267,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"rdonaldsnyder"}
  • 6 votes
#4.3 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 12:26 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2677587,"authorDomain":"munib22"}

Pallin simply isn't a trutworthy person. I'm hearing some nasty things, I won't even bother to mention since none of it has been proven to be true, but if theres any truth about alot more serious rumors than this, its pretty sad the highest office, one which George Washington and Abe Lincoln held, is becomming somehting held in such low regard.

Atleast Obama graduated top of his class from Harvard Law, this chick has a journalism degree from a no name community college.

I hear rumors that there was incest with the 16yo daughter, and ws forced to keep the baby due to her mother's political views.(no proof, just rumors around the internet)

{"commentId":2677587,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"munib22"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#5 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 4:15 AM EDT
{"commentId":2677932,"authorDomain":"a0ted"}
Pallin simply isn't a trutworthy person. I'm hearing some nasty things, I won't even bother to mention since none of it has been proven to be true, but if theres any truth about alot more serious rumors than this, its pretty sad the highest office, one which George Washington and Abe Lincoln held, is becomming somehting held in such low regard.

Lincoln, the bedroom in the White House?.

Oh, please, is too early in the morning and Laura Bush will be interviewed in few minures.

{"commentId":2677932,"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363","authorDomain":"a0ted"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#6 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 7:01 AM EDT
{"canLink":false,"threadId":"345092","isPrivate":false}
Leave a Comment:
You're in Easy Mode. If you prefer, you can use XHTML Mode instead.
As a new user, you may notice a few temporary content restrictions. Click here for more info.
{"threadId":"345092","contentId":"1810363"}
Start TrackingStart Tracking
Stop TrackingStop Tracking